Workforce pressures don’t pause while HR catches up with the need to scale resources and adapt to expanding business demands. In today’s environment, human resources teams are not just planning for the next hiring cycle, they are shaping the workforce their organisation will depend on five years from now. As roles evolve faster than job descriptions, recruitment pipelines face increasing volatility.
According to a 2023 survey*, 9 out of 10 organisations expect significant skill gaps to emerge within the next five years, yet only a third feel fully prepared to address them.
With that gap between awareness and readiness in mind, this article looks at what long-term workforce planning really means, why it’s critical now, and how HR teams can build a practical, future-ready strategy step by step.
What is long-term workforce planning?
Long-term workforce planning is a forward-looking HR strategy focused on ensuring your organisation has the right people, with the right skills, in the right roles. Regardless if it is 3, 5 or even 10 years down the line. It’s a structured approach to aligning your workforce with your long-term business objectives.
How it differs from short-term and tactical planning
Short-term workforce planning is reactive. It helps fill immediate gaps and schedule existing teams. By contrast, long-term planning:
- Projects future skill needs
- Aligns talent pipelines with organisational goals
- Focuses on sustainability and transformation
- Prioritises risk mitigation over firefighting
The key difference lies in scope and intent. Short-term planning keeps things operational. Long-term planning focuses on steering your workforce strategy in the right direction.
Key goals and strategic scope (3–5+ Years)
Over a multi-year timeline, long-term workforce planning aims to:
- Identify and close skill gaps before they impact performance
- Build internal talent pipelines that reduce time-to-fill and strengthen retention
- Reduce reliance on agency or international recruitment by investing in local talent
- Improve workforce retention through structured career development and progression paths
- Support diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts by embedding inclusive planning into hiring and development strategies
- Enable future-focused training and career development in lie with new technologies, service models, and organisational priorities
Why long-term workforce planning matters now
Skills in AI, data, sustainability, and leadership are already scarce. Plus, the gap is only widening. An ageing workforce means more retirements. This is accompanied by slowed recruitment pipelines and growing challenges in attracting qualified candidates.
These challenges are particularly acute in sectors like healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics, where demand continues to rise but the talent pool isn’t keeping pace.
The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan** projects a need for an additional 170,000 nurses and 60,000 doctors by 2036. This isn’t just a healthcare problem. It’s a national and cross-industry challenge.
Business continuity and strategic alignment
Organisations with no long-term workforce plan face:
- Operational risks during periods of high turnover
- Inability to scale or pivot during transformation
- Costly dependence on temporary staffing or recruitment agencies
Long-term planning helps HR leaders support not just daily operations but business continuity and growth.
Lessons from the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan
The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan offers takeaways that apply well beyond the public sector. Its core focus areas, train, retain, and reform, emphasise domestic talent development, flexible career paths, and rethinking how work is structured. Private sector HR leaders can adapt this joined-up approach to tackle similar workforce pressures with a long-term view.
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5 essential steps to build a long-term workforce plan
1. Align workforce strategy with business goals
Effective long-term workforce planning starts with understanding where the business is going. Aligning your workforce strategy with organisational goals ensures you’re building the right capabilities for future growth.
Start with the bigger picture:
- What are your organisation’s 3–5 year goals?
- Which roles are critical to achieving them?
- Are new departments or services expected to grow?
Action tip: Collaborate with finance, operations, and leadership early to turn strategic goals into clear workforce demand forecasts. This alignment is the foundation for every step that follows
2. Audit current workforce and skill sets
You can’t plan if you don’t understand the current state of your workforce. A structured audit helps identify what skills you already have, where critical gaps exist, and which roles may be at risk due to retirement or turnover.
Conduct a detailed audit:
- Headcount by department, role, and location
- Age distribution and retirement risk
- Critical role identification
- Skill inventories and certification status
Digital tools like workforce management software make this process faster and more accurate by surfacing real-time data.
Action tip: Prioritise auditing roles tied to strategic goals or upcoming change. These are your workforce pressure points.
3. Identify future gaps and needs (forecasting)
Once you’ve assessed your current workforce, the next step is to forecast what’s coming. Use business growth plans, market trends, and your audit data to project where new roles will emerge, which may phase out, and what capabilities will be most in demand. Based on your audit and growth projections:
- Forecast new roles that may emerge
- Predict which current roles may become redundant
- Anticipate technology impacts on your workforce
- Identify where reskilling or recruitment is needed
Remember, it’s not just about technical skills. Soft skills like adaptability, leadership, and communication are often the hardest to scale and the first to become bottlenecks.
Action tip: Pair workforce data with scenario modelling*** to anticipate best-case, worst-case, and likely demand for key roles.
4. Design and implement action plans
With future needs defined, it’s time to take action. A step-by-step approach might include:
- Developing reskilling and upskilling programmes
- Building partnerships with universities and training providers
- Strengthening internal mobility pathways
- Creating talent pipelines for high-demand roles
The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan, for example, includes doubling medical school places by 2031, which is a clear response to projected shortages.
Action tip: Focus first on roles tied to growth or risk. Early wins here build momentum and internal confidence in your plan.
5. Monitor, evaluate, and adjust regularly
A long-term plan is only effective if it evolves with your workforce needs. Build in regular review cycles to track progress, reassess priorities, and respond to changes in the business or external environment.
Key activities should include:
- Quarterly check-ins to review progress against milestones
- Annual reassessments aligned with strategic and budget planning
- Re-forecasting based on internal shifts or market trends
- Scenario modelling to explore ‘what-if’ situations and stay agile
Action tip: Assign ownership for ongoing monitoring and make workforce planning a continuous process, not a one-off exercise.
What tools can support your long-term workforce planning?
HR analytics and scenario modelling
When strategising for the long run, making decisions based on data is essential. HR analytics tools help you spot workforce trends before they become risks. Scenario modelling allows teams to simulate future events and see how they will affect staffing, skill availability, and performance. Such foresight turns planning into a proactive process, not a reactive fix.
Strategic planning software and dashboards
The best workforce planning software goes beyond reporting. It provides real-time visibility into your workforce, integrates HR, payroll, and attendance data. It also offers forecasting tools that can be tailored to various business scenarios. With role-based access, teams across HR, finance, and operations can collaborate easily and work from a single source of truth.
Example: How Kelio supports long-term HR planning
Kelio offers an all-in-one platform for long-term workforce planning. Its tools include centralised HR data, smart time-tracking, customisable dashboards, scheduling, and forecasting features. Instead of managing disconnected spreadsheets, HR teams can use Kelio to simplify complex planning, keep data aligned, and focus on building future-ready strategies.
How to overcome common planning challenges
Dealing with uncertain data and shifting priorities
No plan is immune to change. Building flexibility into your approach helps you stay prepared when market conditions shift. This can be done by using ranges instead of fixed numbers or running multiple demand scenarios. Keeping stakeholders informed ensures that adjustments occur quickly and with the necessary support.
Aligning stakeholders across departments
Long-term planning is cross-functional by nature. Finance teams provide budget clarity, operations share workload forecasts, and managers help assess current strengths and future gaps. Creating alignment from the start prevents silos and ensures your plan is both realistic and supported.
Maintaining agility in a long-term vision
Agility comes from regular feedback and adjustment. Assign internal planning champions, encourage teams to surface changes early, and use quarterly workforce reports to inform decisions. Even the best long-term plans must evolve, as agility keeps them effective.
Long term workforce planning in the public sector: NHS case study
NHS targets and commitments up to 2037
The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan sets clear targets: 64,000 nursing associates, 10,000 physician associates, and 39,000 advanced clinical practitioners by 2036/37. These figures represent a bold response to projected healthcare demand.
Implementation challenges and opportunities
The NHS faces significant challenges, from training capacity and cultural resistance to integrating new technologies. But its long-term plan also presents opportunities, including reduced recruitment costs, improved retention, and a stronger employer brand.
Insights for private sector HR leaders
Private sector HR teams can adapt this approach by aligning internally, using data to drive action, and focusing on building sustainable talent pipelines. You don’t need NHS-level scale, just strong coordination and clear, measurable goals.
From planning to action: How Kelio helps you make it real
Centralising your HR data for better decisions
When all HR data is in one place, you get clearer visibility, faster risk identification, and stronger scenario planning. Kelio’s platform removes friction from analysis and decision-making.
Building customised forecasting scenarios
Kelio lets you model future workforce needs, explore budget scenarios, and plan career development paths, all from one central dashboard.
Aligning HR, managers and finance
Kelio enables shared visibility and planning between HR, finance, and department leaders. Everyone works from the same data, improving alignment and accountability.
Optimise your long-term workforce planning and build a team fit for the future.
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What is the ideal timeline for workforce planning?
Typically 3–5 years, though some industries plan 10+ years ahead depending on complexity and risk.
Who should be involved in the planning process?
At minimum: HR, finance, operations, department heads, and executive leadership.
How often should the plan be updated?
Quarterly reviews and annual reassessments help keep the plan relevant and responsive.
How do you forecast skills for jobs that don’t yet exist?
Watch industry trends, build academic partnerships, encourage cross-training, and foster a learning culture to stay ahead.
